Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Malaysia DOI: https://doi.org/10.33093/ijomfa.2023.4.2.6

Main Article Content

Hui Ying Tan
Tuck Cheong Tang

Abstract

This study re-examines the macroeconomic variables those explaining the outstanding balance of non-performing loans (NPL) in Malaysia, namely interest rate, unemployment rate, output, and price level. It covers 11 financing sectors between commercial and Islamic banks, for examples, primary agriculture, electricity, gas and water supply, manufacturing, household sectors, and so on. The data covers monthly observations for the period 2019-2021. Given non-stationarity property in nature for the variables, the ordinary least square (OLS) estimator applies for the first-differenced variables. The empirical results show that higher output reduces overall NPL including of Islamic banks but is inelastic. The past NPL explains the recent outstanding balance. The macroeconomic variables explain the most for primary agriculture, construction, mining & quarrying, transport, storage & communication, and other sector. This study also provides some relevant policy implications.

Article Details

Section
Management, Finance and Accounting

References

Annuar, A. (2020, March 24). Bank Negara announces automatic six-month moratorium on all bank loans — except for credit card balances. Retrieved from: https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/03/24/bank-negara-announces-automatic-six-month-moratorium-on-all-bank-loans-exce/1849820

Balgova, M., Nies, M. and Plekhanov (2016, October). A., The economic impact of reducing non-performing loans. Retrieved from https://www.ebrd.com/publications/working-papers/economic-impact.html#:~:text=Non%2Dperforming%20loans%20(NPLs),confidence%20and%20slow%20economic%20growth.

Bank Negara Malaysia. (2022). The importance of financial stability. Retrieved from website: https://www.bnm.gov.my/the-importance-of-financial-stability

Bank Negara Malaysia (2019). Economic, monetary and financial developments in 2019. Bank Negara Malaysia. Retrieved from https://www.bnm.gov.my/documents/20124/2722983/emr2019_en_ch1.pdf

Berger, A. N., & DeYoung, R. (1997). Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks. Journal of Banking & Finance, 21(6), 849–870. doi:10.1016/s0378-4266(97)00003-4

Chau, C. (2021, December 7). Malaysia aims to grow jobs and reduce unemployment in 2022. Retrieved from: https://hrmasia.com/malaysia-aims-for-job-growth-in-2022/

Ghosh, A. (2015). Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states. Journal of Financial Stability, 20, 93–104. doi:10.1016/j.jfs.2015.08.004

Hayes, A. (2022, February 2). Financial institutions: The different types and how they work. Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/financialinstitution.asp Huljak, I., Martin, R., Moccero, D., & Pancaro, C. (2020). Do non-performing loans matter for bank lending and the business cycle in Euro area countries? European Central Bank Working Paper Series 2411. SSRN. doi:10.2139/ssrn.3601770

Isaev, M., & Masih, M. (2017). Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of different categories of nonperforming financing in Islamic banks: Evidence from Malaysia. MPRA Paper. Retrieved from https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79719/

Islam, M. S., Shil, N. C., & Mannan, Md. A. (2005). Non performing loans -its causes, consequences and some learning. MPRA Paper. Retrieved from https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7708/1/Non_Performing_Loans-Its_causes_consequences_and_some_l.pdf

Ivanovic, M. (2016). Determinants of credit growth: The case of Montenegro. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 5(2), 101–118. doi:10.1515/jcbtp-2016-0013

Jalil, A. (2021, June 24). Deloitte: Banks’ NPL ratio will rise once repayment aid ends. Retrieved from https://themalaysianreserve.com/2021/06/24/deloitte-banks-npl-ratio-will-rise-once-repayment-aid-ends/

Kamil, A. (2020, April 9). M’sian workers who are fired can now claim unemployment benefits. Retrieved from: https://asklegal.my/p/unemployment-benefits-socso-eis-insurance-fired-laid-off-mco

Kepli, S., Bani, Y., Rosland, A., & Laila, N. (2021). Non-performing loans and macroeconomic variables in Malaysia: Recent evidence. International Journal of Economics and Management, 15(1), 19–31.

Khan, I., Saffa , & Ahmad, A. (2021). Microeconomic and social factors as determinants of non-performing loans: Based on opinion of Pakistani bankers. Journal of Business & Tourism, 3(1), 99–112. https://doi.org/10.34260/jbt.v3i1.64

Ong, S. (2021, September 29). Pressure on Malaysian banks’ provision could remain high in next 1-2 years as moratorium expires. Retrieved from https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysian-banks-provision-pressure-could-remain-high-next-12-years-moratorium-programs

Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573–578. doi:10.1257/aer.100.2.573

Shamsudheen, S. V., & Masih, M. (2015). Does the conventional benchmark prop up non-performing loans in Islamic banks? A case study of Malaysia with ARDL approach. MPRA Paper. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/65845.html

Sunil, P. (2021, September 16). SOPs for selected sectors in Malaysia: Workplace capacity, re-opening of businesses, and more. Retrieved from: https://www.humanresourcesonline.net/sep-21-sops-for-selected-sectors-in-malaysia-workplace-capacity-re-opening-of-businesses-and-more

Vouldis, A. T., & Louzis, D. P. (2017). Leading indicators of non-performing loans in Greece: The information content of macro-, micro- and bank-specific variables. Empirical Economics, 54(3), 1187–1214. doi:10.1007/s00181-017-1247-0